Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
The End of Cheap Uranium

AuteurM.Dittmar
6-01-2-20-108.pdf
Datumapril 2013
Classificatie 6.01.2.20/108 (URANIUM - WINNING/VOORRAAD/PRIJS)
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

The End of Cheap Uranium
Michael Dittmar,
Institute of Particle Physics,
ETH, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Journal: Science of the Total Environment
submitted June 25, 2012 and accepted 11.4.2013

Abstract
Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than 50-70% of
the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent data from Canada
and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit extraction lifetime of 10±2
years. This simple model provides an accurate description of the extractable amount of
uranium for the recent mining operations.
Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global
uranium mining peak of at most 58±4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter
we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54 ± 5 ktons by 2025
and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41 ± 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will
not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next
10-20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under
a slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest
that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order.
If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the present cheap
uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be that some countries will
simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at that point, which implies involuntary
and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in those countries involving brownouts, blackouts,
and worse.