Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

AuteurJ.Lelieveld, D.Kunkel, M.G.Lawrence
6-01-3-70-79.pdf
Datummei 2012
Classificatie 6.01.3.70/79 (VEILIGHEID - RISICO-ANALYSES & -BELEVING)
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

Global risk of radioactive fallout after
major nuclear reactor accidents

J. Lelieveld 1,2, D. Kunkel 1, and M. G. Lawrence 1,*
1 Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, P.O. Box 3060, 55020 Mainz, Germany
2 The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
*now at: The Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany
Correspondence to: J. Lelieveld (jos.lelieveld@mpic.de)

Received: 7 October 2011 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 25 November 2011
Revised: 24 April 2012 – Accepted: 27 April 2012 – Published: 12 May 2012

Abstract. 
Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants
are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is
meant by “rare”? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl
and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative,
global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric
dispersion of gases and particles following severe
nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International
Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and
gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate
that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents
and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated.
Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute
that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident
of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of
emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about
50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This
corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and transboundary
impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric
removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different,
the radioactive contamination patterns over land and
the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be
similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in
densely populated regions, notably inWest Europe and South
Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30
million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision
by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce
the national risk, though a large risk will